Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Probability

54.3%↑ 2.0

Volume

$8.0M

Liquidity

$899K

Resolves

Jul 29, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

90.5%

Spread

1.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 90.5%, up 2.0 points in the last 24 hours on $931K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 71.5% and 94.5%, trending downward by 2.0 points overall. Liquidity of $899K makes this a deep market where quotes are meaningful.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 71.5% low.
+Sustained volume ($8.0M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 90.5%, YES pays roughly 1.1x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 94.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 90.5%, NO pays roughly 10.5x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is deep enough that the printed probability is a credible consensus estimate, and the 2.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 92.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 6
Period high: 94.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Jun 19
Period low: 71.5%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 90.5%
Latest print with $931K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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