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Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

Probability

1.0%↑ 0.2

Volume

$202K

Liquidity

$69K

Resolves

Jul 31, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

1.7%

Spread

0.1%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 1.7%, up 0.2 points in the last 24 hours on $83K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.7% and 5.8%, trending downward by 2.8 points overall. Liquidity of $69K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 0.7% low.
+Sustained volume ($202K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 1.7%, YES pays roughly 58.8x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 5.8% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 1.7%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.2-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 9
Charted period opens at 4.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 11
Period high: 5.8%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 2
Period low: 0.7%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 1.7%
Latest print with $83K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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