Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Summary

The market prices YES at 2.7%, up 0.6 points in the last 24 hours on $61K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.9% and 3.0%, trending downward by 0.4 points overall. Liquidity of $293K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.6-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jul 17

   Charted period opens at 3.0%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Aug 2

   Period low: 0.9%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

3. Aug 17

   Currently 2.7%

   Latest print with $61K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Sources