Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?

Summary

The market prices YES at 10.5%, down 3.0 points in the last 24 hours on $11K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 10.5% and 28.5%, trending downward by 18.0 points overall. Liquidity of $34K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 3.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Sep 4

   Charted period opens at 28.5%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Oct 1

   Period low: 10.5%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

3. Oct 2

   Currently 10.5%

   Latest print with $11K of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for December 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered. If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution. The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Sources