Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?

Probability

0.1%↑ 0.0

Volume

$6.8M

Liquidity

$71K

Resolves

Dec 31, 2026

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

0.2%

Spread

0.2%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 0.2%, up 0.0 points in the last 24 hours on $2.1M of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 0.1% and 1.3%, trending downward by 1.1 points overall. Liquidity of $71K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 0.1% low.
+Sustained volume ($6.8M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.2%, YES pays roughly 500.0x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 1.3% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.2%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.0-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 1.3%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 20
Period low: 0.1%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 0.2%
Latest print with $2.1M of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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Summary

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have defended the recent range — the probability has held above its 0.1% low.
+Sustained volume ($6.8M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 0.2%, YES pays roughly 500.0x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as high as 1.3% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 0.2%, NO pays roughly 1.0x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.