Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Probability

4.4%↑ 5.8

Volume

$17.7M

Liquidity

$307K

Resolves

Nov 7, 2028

Best bid

0.1%

Best ask

99.9%

Midpoint

6.7%

Spread

2.2%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 7.4%, up 5.8 points in the last 24 hours on $181K of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 1.1% and 7.2%, trending upward by 5.9 points overall. Liquidity of $307K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 1.4% to 7.2%.
+Sustained volume ($17.7M lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 7.4%, YES pays roughly 13.5x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 1.1% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 7.4%, NO pays roughly 1.1x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 5.8-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jul 17
Charted period opens at 1.4%
Start of the available price history window.
Jul 20
Period low: 1.1%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Aug 17
Period high: 7.2%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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