Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Probability

34.5%↑ 6.0

Volume

$129K

Liquidity

$3K

Resolves

Jul 30, 2026

Best bid

1.0%

Best ask

99.0%

Midpoint

57.5%

Spread

3.0%

Probability history — 30 days

Summary

The market prices YES at 57.5%, up 6.0 points in the last 24 hours on $584 of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 38.5% and 70.5%, trending upward by 9.0 points overall. Liquidity of $3K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

Bull case

+Buyers of YES have been in control across the charted period — the probability climbed from 48.5% to 57.5%.
+Sustained volume ($129K lifetime) means the current price reflects real position-taking, not a stale quote.
+At 57.5%, YES pays roughly 1.7x if the event occurs.

Bear case

−The market has traded as low as 38.5% in this period — pricing is not settled.
−At 57.5%, NO pays roughly 2.4x if the event fails.
−Resolution is strict — read the criteria below carefully; markets often resolve NO on technicalities.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 6.0-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

Jun 3
Charted period opens at 48.5%
Start of the available price history window.
Jun 7
Period low: 38.5%
Lowest market-implied probability of YES.
Jun 12
Period high: 70.5%
Peak market-implied probability of YES.
Jul 3
Currently 57.5%
Latest print with $584 of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Sources

Polymarket market page

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