Explain the resolution criteria in plain language

Summary

The market prices YES at 40.5%, up 0.5 points in the last 24 hours on $94 of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 32.0% and 62.5%, trending downward by 9.5 points overall. Liquidity of $32K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.5-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jun 23

   Charted period opens at 50.0%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Jul 3

   Currently 40.5%

   Latest print with $94 of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Sources