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Summary

The market prices YES at 33.5%, down 3.5 points in the last 24 hours on $961 of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 18.0% and 70.0%, trending downward by 7.0 points overall. Liquidity of $1K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 3.5-point 24h move suggests new information is being priced in right now — check the news before trading.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Aug 11

   Charted period opens at 40.5%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Aug 12

   Period high: 70.0%

   Peak market-implied probability of YES.

3. Aug 13

   Period low: 18.0%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

4. Aug 17

   Currently 33.5%

   Latest print with $961 of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending August 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/

Sources