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Summary

The market prices YES at 1.6%, up 0.1 points in the last 24 hours on $0 of daily volume. Over the charted period the probability has ranged between 1.5% and 30.0%, trending downward by 10.4 points overall. Liquidity of $2K makes this a thinner market — treat the printed probability with some caution.

AI insight

This is a quantitative read derived from live Polymarket data only — no AI or news research was performed. Connect Ollama for local open-model analysis, or a hosted AI key for web-grounded research. Structurally: liquidity is thin, so the printed probability can move sharply on small orders, and the 0.1-point 24h move suggests no major new information in the last day.

Deterministic analysis from live Polymarket data only. Connect Ollama or a hosted AI key for generated reasoning.

Timeline

1. Jun 3

   Charted period opens at 12.0%

   Start of the available price history window.

2. Jun 13

   Period high: 30.0%

   Peak market-implied probability of YES.

3. Jul 1

   Period low: 1.5%

   Lowest market-implied probability of YES.

4. Jul 3

   Currently 1.6%

   Latest print with $0 of 24h volume.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is determined as the national champion of the 2026-27 College Football Playoff. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the national champion of 2026-27 NCAA Football Division 1 season per the rules of NCAA (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after February 8, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source will be official information from the NCAA; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources